Red Going Green?
Projecting the Environmental Impacts of the New Labour Government
The latest general election has seen Keir Starmer’s Labour Party storm to victory in the UK. Having pledged a swathe of environmental policy shakeups throughout his campaign, we question how far his reforms will go.
For many last week, Friday morning would have been accompanied with a distinct feeling of relief as the UK ushered in a new government. After 14 years of uninterrupted Tory rule, the British Labour Party was able to storm to victory, in a snap election called just over one month ago, with an effective working majority of 181 in the Commons.
This whopping majority, long predicted by pollsters as the Tories seemed unable to weather the growing public animosity over their deteriorating political record, essentially gives the party a blank cheque to govern for at least the next 5 years. With this inevitably comes the hope that, with this new-found power, Keir Starmer’s Labour Party will be able to pass some more radical policies through parliament that would allow us to rectify some of the problems introduced in the last administration.
One of the key areas where the public is crying out for change is in the implementation of greener policies that will safeguard our country’s nature and help us along the road to net zero. In large part, this is evidenced by the rapid growth of the Green Party, who were able to quadruple their total number of seats during this election, who are now touted as being able to outflank the incumbents from the left, particularly on environmental issues.
Looking through their recently published manifesto, we can see Labour’s environmental focus will at least be more progressive in terms of policy than their predecessors, who were seemingly engaged in a race to the bottom on green issues. Therefore, we at Shade the UK decided to take this opportunity to analyse their anticipated policy positions and determine what their likely impacts on our environment will be. Please read on to learn more.
Decarbonising the Energy Network
On environmental issues, one of the most headline-grabbing flagship policies of the new Labour government surrounds their intention to deliver clean energy by 2030, originally set out whilst in opposition. Now listed as one of their ‘five missions to rebuild Britain’, the fact that this policy is taking front and centre is heartening for those of us working within green industries.
Key to this initiative will be the creation of a new publicly-owned energy company, Great British Energy. Funded primarily through Labour’s Green Prosperity Plan (or, at least, a watered down version of it), itself funded through a windfall tax on oil and gas companies and responsible borrowing, this state-backed entity will work with private industry to co-invest in emerging green technologies to boost their competitiveness with more mature sources of energy. Specifically, plans under GBE include:
Double onshore wind power and quadruple offshore wind power;
Triple solar power output across the country;
Boost hydrogen-based and marine energy;
Invest in carbon capture and storage;
Ensure long-term energy storage capacity across the UK.
By supporting the implementation of these capital-intensive projects, which will be spread throughout the country, it is hoped that these Labour proposals will help create over 650,000 jobs and build robust energy supply chains. Furthermore, these plans are highlighting local power generation as a key solution to the energy challenges the country faces; through partnering with energy companies, local authorities, and cooperatives, GBE will install thousands of smaller scale clean energy projects, based on the needs of communities and devolved governments.
And, despite the stereotype that parties over-promise in opposition yet under-deliver in power, there are signs that much of Labour’s environmental policies are more than just hot air; during their first week of government, we are already seeing a flurry of new policies being announced, including an update to the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) that would strip it of the Tory-era ban on onshore wind.
But, as all discussions around clean energy eventually turn to, what we do with our current energy infrastructure and the livelihoods that depend on it in a greening economy need to be addressed. Namely, oil and gas. One of the major criticisms of the growing calls to replace our current fossil fuel-based energy grid with greener alternatives is what happens to, say, oil and gas production in the North Sea.
The manifesto toes a fine line between an impetus towards a greener grid and appearing as if they wish to undermine British business. Therefore, whilst recognising the importance of existing oil and gas infrastructure and reiterating their promise to not revoke existing licences, they state there will be no new licences for the exploration of new fields. Furthermore, no new coal licences will be issued and fracking will be banned permanently.
Finally, the new government is also promising to revitalise the nation’s energy system and grid - Labour will work with industry, both through the deployment of new regulations to hold energy companies to account and the construction of new infrastructure, to create a modernised energy system that puts customers and the quality of service first.
Analysis: The incumbent Labour party are demonstrably more invested in a green transition than their Conservative predecessors, with early signals indicating that their relatively progressive manifesto is already being acted upon. However, with regards to this country’s overall energy output, it seems that their policies have a number of blindspots with regards to their impact on the environment.
For example, despite preventing the issuance of further oil and gas licences a relief to many environmentalists - with the last oil fields accepted for exploration threatening an upsurge in British emissions - questions remain surrounding how to phase out the use of oil and gas, and the extent to which Labour will honour existing licences. Namely, a more progressive policy document would have included a detailed industrial strategy for how the nation can reduce its overall dependence on North Sea fossil fuels, and permit a diversification of the local economy so as to buffer job losses through its gradual reduction.
Furthermore, there is concern surrounding the likelihood that the newly issued licence to develop the Rosebank field - the largest undeveloped oil field in the North Sea - will ramp up the UK’s emissions by hundreds of megatonnes annually. Hence, until these questions are answered, it is difficult to assess the extent to which we can reach net zero and improve our air quality under the current administration.
One key factor that will underpin any country’s transition to net zero is in its automotive industry, yet the policies laid out so far seem relatively lacklustre in their aims to decarbonise transportation. Primarily focusing on supporting infrastructural changes to lubricate the private sector transition to electric vehicles (EVs), namely by implementing a phasing out of petrol and diesel alternatives by 2030 and boosting charging points, many had hoped the government would implement measures to boost a domestic industry in EVs.
With incoming chancellor Rachel Reeves having touted a more interventionist approach to industrial strategy (the so-called ‘securonomics’), greater private incentives and to green our automotive industry would have been welcome.
Without a more rapid transition to EVs, it is hard to envisage net zero by 2030.
Accelerating Homebuilding & Construction
When it comes to boosting the UK’s housing stock, the general election campaign saw the major parties trying to outmanoeuvre one another on the number of new properties they would be able to deliver: the Tories promising 1.6 million over 5 years, just outstripping Labour on a paltry 1.5 million. Anyone with a toe in politics knows these promises are a much needed uplift, with one analysis from the Financial Times showing that England alone will likely require over half a million to be built annually to keep up with the growing population.
Whilst we have discussed the whole suite of Labour’s housing reforms elsewhere, their approach to Get Britain Building Again can generally be summarised in one statement: mandate new housing in a less stringent regulatory environment.
What this means is that the Labour government will adapt the planning process to make it easier for developers to design and construct new housing projects, whilst mandating that local authorities commit to building a fixed number of homes per year via reintroducing housing targets. For instance, despite promising a ‘brownfield-first’ approach to freeing up land for construction, Starmer has stated he will permit low-quality land within the current bounds of the green belt - known as ‘grey belt’ land - to be considered for development, much to the ire of some environmentalists.
On top of this, the government has promised to review the current system of Compulsory Purchase Orders (CPOs), in order to realign the cost of acquiring land on which to build; the current system obliges purchasers to pay the ‘hope value’ of the plot, i.e. a figure taking account of its value should it receive planning permission, far outstripping its actual value. This would speed up the process of land acquisition and make it a more appealing investment.
Each of these policies is part of a vision to deliver the next generation of new towns across the UK, with the party having committed to defining where they will be located by the end of the year. However, as with everything planning-related in the UK, which is notorious for progressing at a sub-glacial pace, it is most likely that these promises will not be delivered over the course of just one parliament.
Analysis: Housing, or its lack of provision in this country, is one of the greatest hurdles faced by this generation, both in terms of aspirations surrounding home ownership as well as the touted economic benefits of a boom in construction. And yet, whilst it is feasible these new measures will go a long way to addressing these challenges, it appears that insufficient thought has been given to the overall environmental impact of such an uptick in housing development or to means by which we can mitigate this.
Take, for instance, the sheer volume of housing that has been pledged by Starmer’s Labour. One concern that made the rounds prior to the election was that this figure of 1.5 million homes over 5 years could have a devastating impact on our ability to meet the country’s emissions targets.
According to Alice Moncaster, professor of sustainable construction at the University of the West of England (UWE), this number of homes would generate approximately 60 megatonnes of upfront carbon in total. Spread over 5 years, this would correspond to a 4% increase in annual carbon emissions. Clearly, the plan to move forward with this level of construction would have huge implications for net zero and air quality targets, due to the amount of embodied carbon (not to mention the carbon generated over the buildings’ life cycles).
Thus, what this administration needs to focus on is delivering on these housing pledges in a manner that does not contravene environmental obligations. For instance, the government could develop a series of new regulations surrounding how to minimise the pollution associated with the housing industry, introducing new standards surrounding the procurement of materials (utilising those with lower embodied carbon), focusing on retrofitting and recycling, and mandating carbon offsetting schemes within the industry.
A further criticism of government plans relate to Starmer’s overall bullish attitude towards regulations, having previously committed to ‘bulldoze through’ planning restrictions. Whilst a number of planning changes have already been announced, there is worry that this rhetoric could translate into less stringent environmental codes, in an effort to expedite planning and construction.
However, if the recent announcement to open up more of the green belt to development is anything to go by, there is possible cause for worry.
Despite promising to only free up areas of the ‘grey belt’, supposedly only constituting low-quality portions of the green belt, it could be argued that this is too much a vague definition. On the one hand, it is difficult to arbitrate what areas are ‘low-quality’, meaning ecologically important regions could be concreted over should one planning officer deem it so. On the other hand, with more and more evidence suggesting that mixed or ‘mosaic’ habitats being essential to functioning ecosystems, even ‘low-quality’ areas could play a role in maintaining biodiversity.
Therefore, what we need to see in order to prevent continued ecological collapse in the UK is through bringing in strict criteria for what constitutes high- and low-quality portions of the green belt and obligate developers to ensure the ecological and biodiversity services provided by a specific habitat is recreated elsewhere, extending policies such as Biodiversity Net Gain (BNG).
Warm Homes Plan & Climate Adaptation
Across the UK, approximately 9.6 million households are currently living in cold, damp, and poorly insulated homes, and living below the minimum income standard to make necessary improvements, according to a recent analysis. What this means is not only that a large portion of the population is living in unsuitable conditions, but the amount of gas and electricity being used to heat homes skyrockets every winter, compounded by the challenges of a cost-of-living crisis.
In total, roughly 56 million tonnes of carbon dioxide came directly from UK homes throughout 2022, with the vast majority of these emissions associated with burning gas for heating. This corresponds with approximately 17% of the UK’s total emissions.
Therefore, improving the insulation and energy efficiency of homes is imperative to not only combating rising bills, but could knock out a large chunk of our annual carbon emissions.
And that is exactly what the new government seeks to achieve; under the new ‘Warm Homes Plan’, the government will invest an extra £6.6 billion over the current parliament to upgrade 5 million homes, primarily through issuing grants and low-interest loans. This investiture will focus mostly on insulation, but also support other improvements such as solar panels, batteries, and low-carbon heating. This will be complemented with private financing, from banks and building societies.
This is with a view to reach minimum energy standards across all private rented homes by 2030, specifically an EPC rating of C or above.
Analysis: By confronting the combined challenges of home insulation and energy efficiency head on, the UK could make a very large dent in its annual carbon emissions, whilst simultaneously cutting bills for struggling families across the nation. Particularly in its efforts to achieve net zero, solving 17% of the issue would go a long way.
However, the main criticism this policy is facing surrounds its feasibility; essentially, many analysts argue that the promised level of investiture would be insufficient to meet their targets. For example, the previous Tory government issued an analysis suggesting that the cost of upgrading the estimated 19 million homes would equate to closer to £12-15 billion, yet many are equally wary of this figure.
Yet, despite their manifesto providing detail (albeit scant) on their plans to boost housing insulation, it’s what has been left out that speaks volumes. Specifically, with summers in this country growing hotter every year, having come to a head in 2022 with the devastating heatwaves that are estimated to have claimed over 4,500 lives in England alone, more should have been said on climate adaptation.
There was a brief reference in the manifesto to “building more high-quality, well-designed, and sustainable homes and creating places that increase climate resilience and promote nature recovery” and “improving resilience and preparation” across government, yet details remained scarce. And with research from the Resolution Foundation showing that approximately one-third of UK houses are at risk of overheating in future, a plan of attack for integrating climate-adaptive measures into planning reform is surely needed.
Balancing the competing needs of keeping houses warm in winter and cool in summer is clearly a challenge that planners and developers are not yet ready for. However, solutions do exist, particularly those that focus on housing designs that facilitate natural ventilation and cooling. Yet to bring these solutions to the mainstream will require a detailed government action plan to ensure new housing developments are fit for a future climate.
Protecting Nature & Our Waterways
In an unprecedented upsurge, the last election saw a 6-fold increase in the number of seats taken by the Liberal Democrats, now on 72 seats in the commons. Aside from the recent antics of their leader, Ed Davey, on the campaign trail (including falling off a paddle board, barreling down a waterslide, and bungee jumping), one of the key policy positions that brought the Liberal Democrats back to political relevance has been their stance on British rivers and waterways.
When our national water companies were privatised during the Thatcher years, it was hoped that the force of market competition would have incentivised the much-needed infrastructural improvements the nation was demanding. However, 40 years on and the situation is dire; due to rampant mismanagement, neglect, and shareholder greed, sewage discharge into our rivers has become commonplace.
And this problem has only been accelerating in recent years. According to data from the Environment Agency, there were 3.6 million hours of sewage spills in 2023, compared with 1.75 million hours the previous year.
Unsurprisingly, this has caused widespread outrage across the country, with protests against the actions of water companies becoming more and more frequent. This became a key dividing line at the last election, with the Lib Dems’ promise of holding water companies to account one of their champion policies and highlighting the Tories’ record on this issue.
In their own manifesto, the Labour Party dedicated just two paragraphs to sorting out this crucial issue. Many might see this as insufficient to address a scandal that has caused a surge in waterborne diseases across the UK since the Tories took power in 2010, but their plans were more fully delineated ahead of the election. They primarily comprise a plan for greater accountability amongst water companies and putting them under special measures to:
Block bonus payments to water bosses until they tackle this issue and clean up pollution;
Bring criminal charges against water companies / bosses who continually fail to address the issue;
End self-monitoring of sewage dumps by water companies, bringing in independent supervision;
Introduce severe and automatic fines for water companies for incidents of pollution.
Aside from cleaning up our waterways, the government has committed itself to tackling the biodiversity crisis in the UK. Recognising that this country is one of the most nature-depleted nations on Earth, with huge numbers of species at risk of extinction, the new government is promising to deliver for the natural world.
Again, the portion of the manifesto dedicated to protecting nature was only two paragraphs in length, where it outlined how the new government would expand nature-rich habitats, plant new woodland, and improve access to nature. Yet seemingly the most important detail included here was their promise to take action to achieve the targets laid out in the Environment Act, which became law in 2021.
Drawn up in 2021 by the Tories, this Act contained a number of provisions to halt the decline in species across the UK by 2030 and, subsequently, see a reversal of this trend, including through setting a series of legally binding targets. These included increasing tree cover by 16.5% by 2050, restoring 70% of marine protected areas (MPAs) to a favourable condition by 2042, and increasing species populations by 10% by 2042. Unsurprisingly, they were unable to meet their own targets on biodiversity and the environment, with the Office for Environmental Protection (OEP), the independent watchdog set up as part of the Act, revealing that progress in recent years has only been sufficient to meet 4 of the 40 targets.
It is encouraging that the new government seeks to commit their efforts to meeting these targets.
Analysis: The promises made ahead of the election with regards to cleaning up our waterways will, it is hoped, go some way to ensuring a safe and high-quality water supply. However, their plans primarily rely upon the water companies themselves being forced to get their acts together and make the necessary investments to improve our overall water infrastructure.
The likelihood of these water companies either having the capacity or the impetus to make these changes appears low. It is now known that many major water companies have accumulated vast amounts of debt and will need large cash injections to be able to improve capacity, money that the government has refused to invest by ruling out nationalisation in any form. Alternative sources of cash flow will have to be either from company investors, who are unlikely to foot the bill given the sheer volume of debt, or from consumers, with the regulator Ofwat recently permitting increases to water bills by 2030.
Leaving the improvement of our water system to tweaking regulations and general market forces will thus either make the already beleaguered water companies collapse or force the general public to foot the bill, compounded by our living through a cost-of-living crisis. Hence, the only way to quickly and effectively improve our water infrastructure is through direct management, i.e. some form of nationalisation.
Labour could take some inspiration from the Liberal Democrats. Ahead of the election, their plans included relaunching failing water companies as ‘public benefit companies’, which would de-prioritise the profit motive from the companies’ plans and hold them to much higher environmental standards.
With regards to solving the biodiversity crisis, what’s lacking is the detail. Of course, redoubling their efforts to achieve the goals outlined in the Environment Act will go a long way to boosting this country’s depleted ecosystems, but what the government needs is a roadmap of specific initiatives for getting there.
Conclusion
The new Labour government came into power on a relatively strong environmental footing, stronger than that of the previous government at least. With a number of policy pledges that tackle everything from net zero to improved air quality to solving the biodiversity crisis, it is heartening to finally see some progress in the right direction.
The main criticism that can be levelled against the government is a lack of detail. It is not unsurprising that many sections of the manifesto were scant on detail, given how the announcement of a snap election gave little time for opposition parties to hammer together a plan for government. Yet, now that they are in power, this is the point at which we need to start hearing about specific roadmaps and frameworks to ensure that the UK can achieve its new green commitments.
As Labour moves forward with its more ambitious agenda, it will be essential to keep a close eye on the progress of their environmental policies and hold them accountable to their commitments. This is particularly considering accusations that they tend to U-turn on their green promises. Only time will tell if the new government can truly deliver on its promises and lead the UK towards a greener, more sustainable future.
Throughout this process, we hope that the government will rely on expert advisors such as Love Design Studio and Shade the UK to help them push their green agenda forward. If you would like to read more about our work here at Love Design Studio and Shade the UK, please click here or here.